DECISION FRAMEWORKS

Simple frameworks for consequential choices.

Use structured questions to evaluate evidence, compare constraints, define thresholds, and decide what to do next.

Evidence quality
Signal is ranked, not flattened.
  • Observed fact
  • Customer statement
  • Quantitative behavior
  • Founder assertion
  • Inference
  • Unknown
Constraint comparison
How candidate constraints are compared.
  • Supporting evidence
  • Contradictory evidence
  • Commercial impact
  • Controllability
  • Cost of being wrong
  • Missing information
Experiment quality
What every experiment must specify.
  • Hypothesis
  • Target segment
  • Change being tested
  • Sample and duration
  • Success threshold
  • Failure threshold
  • Decision unlocked
Outcome review
The canonical decisions after a result.
  • Continue
  • Modify
  • Narrow
  • Gather more evidence
  • Stop
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